India-China Competition Is Natural ’

Yes. China used to say in the past that they would not interfere in internal affairs of Nepal. This was ritual. But, Chinese used another word saying they will not interfere in Nepal’s affairs and it is unacceptable for them if others make interference.

By RAMESHNATH PANDEY

Former foreign minister RAMESHNATH PANDEY closely watches the political developments in Nepal. In the wake of debates over the external forces making Nepal a battleground, former foreign minister Pandey, who started his career as a journalist and ended up with politics, spoke to KESHAB POUDEL at his residence about the ongoing political process in Nepal. Excerpts:

What is your impression about growing Chinese activities?
For the first time, China has shown its concerns and interests in Nepal. We have to take note of the statement in which the visiting Chinese leader says China will not interfere in internal affairs of Nepal and it is unacceptable for China any interference by others in internal affairs of Nepal.

Do you think it is a major shift in Chinese stand?
Yes. China used to say in the past that they would not interfere in internal affairs of Nepal. This was ritual. But, Chinese used another word saying they will not interfere in Nepal’s affairs and it is unacceptable for them if others make interference. Now the questions come. If other forces interfere or China takes others’ activities as interference, what action will China take? Whatever action it takes, it will put Nepal in a difficult position.

How can Nepal preempt possible accident?
If we failed to complete the peace process in four months as we have committed to the international community, civil war will break out in Nepal and that is going to be a proxy civil war and it will push Nepal into Yugoslavia’s road from Lebanon. It will wipe out Nepal from the international map.

Do you mean the recent statement of Chinese is a warning to south or suggestion for restraints?
I don’t have any confusion that India has security, political and economic concern. It has been there for a long time and it will remain there. India will make its efforts to address it. We have to take it naturally. We should not forget that Chinese security interest in Nepal is also growing. As its security concern in Nepal is growing, we have to take Chinese actions as natural. However, we have to understand the fact that the adventurism shown by our government and other international players in Nepal increases the security concern of Nepal’s two neighbors.

How can Nepal avert the confrontation?
There is a feeling in both the capitals of India and China that Nepal government does not have the capability to look after their genuine concerns and they have to take care of their own interests by themselves. In this situation, we need to convey both the neighbors that we will protect their genuine interests.

How much possibility is there to build mutual confidence in Nepal between India and China on their own interests?
I think you can write a very good essay on the theme but it is impossible in international politics and it is just a wishful thinking. We should not forget the fact that both of Nepal’s neighbors, India and China, are aspiring or global economic powers. There is a competition for leadership between them. There is only one leader and one cannot get the leadership without minimizing the other. If they want to become Asian powers, both the countries need to maintain good relations with their neighbors so that they can concentrate outside.

What is India’s concern in Nepal?
Since the establishment of relations with India in 1947, India has always shown its concern in Nepal regarding its security. She has made every effort to protect her interest in Nepal. It is natural as every big country has concern with smaller country and they make efforts to address that concern by using their influence. We should not take such efforts otherwise.

How do you view India’s relations?
The weakness of Indian foreign policy is that India’s relationship with its entire neighbors is very bad. India’s relations with Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are not good. India is trying to build relations with all neighbors but their security feelings and worries are there. India needs to change its stand to build relations with its neighbors on the basis of mutual respect. This is a prerequisite for India.

If India establishes good relations with its neighbors, will it change the relations between India and China?
Despite this, there will be no tangible change between India and China. Their clash of interest will be there. In such a situation, they will come with mutually agreed confidence building measure is just a wishful thinking. This is not practical but theoretical.

But, India and China agreed at the Climate Change summit with the common agenda. Why is not such a possibility there in Nepal?
Nepal is not a country far away from their borders but Nepal is their neighbor having its borders with them. During Copenhagen, Tibet was not an issue but Nepal shares a long border with Tibet. Because Nepal borders with Tibet, China will have a major concern in Nepal. You cannot compare this interest with anything else. Similarly, Nepal’s geo-strategic location is very important for Indian security, at a time when there is internal security threat growing in India. I want to quote BBC’s recent report which said India is fighting with itself. As long as differences persist in many issues, India and China can compete to protect their interests in Nepal. If those kinds of confidence will be built between India and China, it will be good for Nepal’s future and prosperity. Since China is aspiring for world power, it has different interests than India.
It is reported that Nepal’s two neighbors are worried about the presence of western forces, UNMIN and OHCHR.

Don’t you think they come together to maintain their influence?
There will be no substitution for UNMIN and China will not feel secure with the presence of anybody. It may feel secure under the presence of UNMIN since it is one of the members of P5. Even for India, the best bet will be UN.

How can Nepal safeguard the interests of both the neighbors?
For both the neighbors, the best option will be strong, stable and prosperous Nepal. We should not forget the principle that a big country feels secure when a small country is stable. Had Afghanistan been secure and stable, peaceful and prosperous, Bin Laden would not have been born. One cannot make the global environment secure by turning a small country insecure and chaotic. It will not make any power safe in case of chaos in a smaller country.

Do you think China is reliable and trustworthy as in the past?
We need to give up a phobia of past that China will come to help us in the crisis. How much is China trustful? We need to be clear on that. When we established our relations with China, it was in isolation and was weaker internally and poor. China was very friendly and trustful at that time towards her friends and friends relied on it.

Why are you suspecting China?
Now China is a different country and it has already become an economic power. China is sustaining American economy. China has strengthened its capability globally and it is stronger. What will be present China’s attitude? Will it be different than old China or similar? We have yet to test it, whether China is dependable to its old allies or not. If we have built our own thinking based on old perception, it may be right or wrong. It will be risky.

What is required then?
We need to earn the trust of both of our neighbors. We have to give confidence to both of our neighbors that their interest is properly protected in Nepal. Nepal’s interest will not be served as long as Nepal does not guarantee this. We have challenges and opportunities as well.

What do we need to do to protect our interest?
We cannot protect our interest without addressing genuine concerns of both the neighbors. Nepal has much opportunity as well. The big market of Nepal’s two neighbors can bring prosperity to Nepal. If we create a situation favorable to us, we can change the world. We must act as a bridge to increase understanding between two neighbors. In this situation, we can protect our interest as well as can bring prosperity. Nepal can also prevent possible conflict between India and China and it will be major contribution in the global peace.

How do you assess India, China relations?
Conflict between India and China is growing. We have to read two statements of Indian prime minister and defense minister which showed that the conflict between India and China is growing and there is war of words between them. Since both the countries have matured leadership, this conflict will not bring any war. But the trends showed that war of words will increase further.

What will happen after four months when the tenure of UNMIN is completed?
I hope for the best that everything will be completed, including the peace process in four months. We need to be clear that it is not the UN responsibility to conclude the peace process. UNMIN can supervise and support and assist the peace process. Mistrust is growing between the political parties and there is a deficit of trust between UNMIN and Nepal. In this situation, I can see lesser possibility of completion of the peace process.

Will UNMIN tenure be extended again?
UN has already decided to pull out UNMIN in four months. Even if extension is required, we need to take a very strong initiative to persuade the Security Council again. Given Nepal’s present quality of leadership, I don’t think we have such a diplomatic capability.

What will be other options?
Once UNMIN is pulled out, UN secretary general’s statement includes the word ‘alternative’ arrangements in case Nepal’s peace process remains incomplete. There is a big question what that ‘alternative’ means. Nepal has not made any efforts to seek clarification on that word.
Don’t you see there will be a vacuum after UNMIN leaves?
When UNMIN leaves, there will be a big vacuum and there is no institution which is capable to fill it. One group argues that political parties have the capability for this. If they are capable, why do not they settle the peace process? If external force tries to fill that vacuum, it will be a major disaster for Nepal.

Which external force is that?
All of us know which force has largest security stake in Nepal but it is not in an interest of external force. Nobody can justify it to replace UNMIN.

If the southern neighbor tries to fill that vacuum, what will be the reaction from the north?
The north will definitely react in many forms. We should not forget that effects of Nepal’s chaos and instability directly spill over to India and China. If Nepal’s chaos affects these two emerging powers, it will affect the peace and stability of the region and the world. Its ramifications will be much more serious and larger than what we are expecting.

How do you look at the current row between the UN and Nepal?
We had made a blunder when we wrote a letter to the United Nations. The letter shattered more than 53-year old good relations between Nepal and the UN. Nepal is widely respected in the UN as it has made very important contributions against apartheid. When Dag Hammarskjöld was killed in a plane crash in Congo in 1961, the UN set up an inquiry commission, which was led by Nepalese foreign minister Rishikesh Shah. Nepal was given such a huge responsibility and regard. When the UN won the Nobel Peace Prize, then secretary general took the Nepalese Army officer to accept that Noble Peace Prize.

If that is so why did Nepal take such a decision?
I think a conspiracy against Nepal is going on and we are playing at their hands. The efforts are going on to show international community that Nepal is a weak nation, it is incapable to take decisions on its own and there are wide divisions and differences among major political parties.